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Daily market review 04.09.2019

Good day to all!

When the SL on the deal is triggered – it is not terrible, it happens. It is possible that the SL worked due to an error in calculating the transaction parameters, when I did not correctly account for volatility, because of sudden news or tweets, sometimes just bad luck. But when you get 5 such "surprises" in a day and on deals in different instruments, it is no longer an accident. This is a wrong view of the market and a wrong forecast. In this case, you should first suspend operations on these instruments, and just look at the market from the outside and think about it.

Currencies – "the Trading range for EURUSD today is 1.0912-1.0989, there is a possibility of growth" - so we wrote yesterday in the review. Yes, the Euro did not go beyond this range and even increased by the end of the day. But that doesn't change our plan if you look at this pair, most likely this rebound is a temporary phenomenon and the decline will continue. The rebound may not have ended up yet, but it is still just a rebound. The trading range for EURUSD today is 1.0939-1.1012.

We do not actively trade this pair, it is not interesting due to low volatility, but it is necessary to follow the main currency pair to analyze other instruments.

The dollar-ruble – "Today's trading range is 66.6 -67.10, with a bias of growth side" - this is how we saw the movement of this pair yesterday. The dollar-ruble traded calmly, the level of 67.10 was "not up to the teeth" of this pair. The ruble will change along with other currencies, either slightly ahead or slightly behind in its dynamics. Today's trading range is 66.50 -67, s with a downward bias . This pair is not of any trading interest for us at the moment, so we do not trade it. But for operations with stock indexes, it is necessary to track the dynamics of the dollar-ruble.

S&P500 index-there is a range trade, in a pronounced sideways direction. Suggest, that the trading range for the S&P500 futures for today is 2891 -2939, with a bias towards growth.

RTS and MICEX are our main failures On the stock market. Its dynamics and growth were unexpected for us. The decline in the us stock markets and the decline in oil were completely reversed ignored by our indexes. Surgut and rumors about its investments have created a great demand not only for Surgut's securities, but also for other assets. However, gossip and rumors about Surgutneftegaz appear at least once a year, and each time is different. I will assume that when currency rates move into a negative zone, foreign currency savings will increase these companies are beginning to eat themselves up, as simply even storing such amounts becomes unprofitable. Perhaps this is why the management of this company, which has been accustomed since the days of perestroika to keep savings "in foreign currency", is now puzzled. But, to expect that the management style or approach to investment in this company will change dramatically, we they wouldn't. Nothing has changed for 20 years, just like in our country as a whole, and then suddenly there will be reforms… I DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!. The key supports are located on RTS 129100 and MICEX 274800 futures , while the resistances are RTS 132200 and MICEX 280300, but we will probably take a pause in the deals for now.

OIL – yesterday, oil broke through the key support of 58 , and even reached 57.20 , but it could not get a foothold below 58. The trading range for today is 57.32-58.93, trading occurs in a narrow range in the range of 58-60, of course, the price will go out of this range. The question of when, and how much, is still relevant.

We opened long positions twice yesterday and got SL TWICE, losing about 1% of our capital on two trades .

Precious metals-Metals are trading near highs, and silver has set a new multi-year high.

Speculative positions are also at highs, and historical ones at that. Our assumption of consolidation at these levels turned out not to be true quite true. Gold really couldn't break 1550 .

Today, the trading range for gold is 1528-1556 and for silver is 18.63 -19.56, we will try to open short positions, there is a good probability of a decline. (the spot price they are different from the futures price).

Debt market – in the morning, the yield on us bonds 10Y (ten-year paper ) increased 1.49%, and on 3M (three-month bonds) 1.94%, Inversion in returns between 3M and 10Y remain, as well as between 2Y and 10Y, it is still the highest since 2007. For now, the debt market continues to rely on reducing rates and signaling the onset of a recession in the US. We believe that it is the debt market, right it shows the state of the world economy. The yield on 30Y (thirty-year bonds)rose to 1.99%.

https://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/124425

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4081058

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5cf556fe1b104c00afef7abd/o-sovetah-finansovyh-guru-5cfccd5bbabd4000b092d563

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/brexit-boris-johnson-has-tabled-motion-to-hold-a-general-election-20190904

About all our transactions that we publicly make in real time , about our current positions, as well as about the results of our operations, you Can can be found on our cables channel Forexindexed. We give honest information!

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